Political Warfare - The Battle of Newark

Following UKIPs historic victory in the European elections all of the noise was surrounding the so called political earthquake, but before the results were even in those who understand how the British electoral system works had already turned our attention somewhere else.

Our focus instantly switched to a small town North East of Nottingham on the River Trent, to the constituency of Newark.

While the purples success in the race to Brussels was expected, getting seats in Westminster has proved problematic for them, not least because of the first-past-the-post system (don’t blame me I voted for AV).

However, with their current undeniable momentum Newark offers an interesting opportunity for them and the polls suggest they could do well, but with the circus now firmly focuses on the midlands this is going to be no ordinary by-election.

Under normal circumstance this would be a forgone conclusion with a massive Conservative majority, but following the resignation of Patrick Mercer in a lobbying scandal there is potential for an upset.

The first poll out of Newark by Survation suggests the Tory’s are winning with 36%, UKIP second on 28%, just ahead of Labour on 27%.

With a week to go, a lot of media attention and the election machines in full swing this is not set in stone and the outcome is far from guaranteed

But regardless of who wins the result is going to be interesting, so what will end up happening?

Con Hold – By far the most likely outcome, but by how much they win will be a telling factor.

It is unlikely they will extend or even get a similar majority, but this was to be expected following the nature of the former MPs resignation.

However, a strong performance with an eight point margin (as the current polls suggest) would be a great result even if a lot of ground would have been lost, while a four point win would be more than acceptable.

This would allow the Conservatives the chance to claim UKIP are not a national force and the government’s economic policies are benefiting the British people, but all this assumes it stays roughly the same.

Con Hold, but only just – With UKIP and Labour snapping at the Conservatives heals the result could be a lot tighter than currently predicted.

If the Tory’s win by just a couple of points then the pressure to address the UKIP issue and the fact they are hurting the blues more than the reds will only mount on David Cameron.

However, the person under the most pressure might be Nigel Farage as it could be argued his personality could possibly have tipped UKIP over the top and gained them their first Westminster representative.

UKIP Win – Given the conservative leanings of the constituency this is probably the second most likely outcome after a Tory win and would signal the earthquake promised by Mr Farage.

It is going to take a big swing and it is unlikely UKIP candidate Roger Helmer will be able to bridge the gap given his age and previously expressed opinions on certain issues, most recently the weekends newspaper story about his views on the disproved theory of gay conversion therapy.

Similarly, the Conservatives have more backing and greater experience in running these campaigns so it would be difficult for UKIP to overturn the lead.

This said the Tory’s are down 18% on 2010 and most of this seems to be going to UKIP so in fact all that is required is a four point swing to the purples and we could have a UKIP MP.

Labour Win – Very unlikely, but with UKIP splitting the Tory vote then it is possible. This would be a massive win for Ed Miliband and the red team, who last won Newark in the 1997 landslide.

Overall second place, or a close third would be a relatively successful day for the red corner. The problems only really start with a distant third or a significant Labour voter swing to UKIP.

However, a win is not impossible, just unlikely.

Everybody Wins – Sounds ridiculous, but arguably the most likely scenario would see everybody happy and claiming a victory, or at least a moral one.

Tory’s hold the seat by a few points with UKIP a Labour on similar scores allows everybody to save face as Conservatives can claim the actual win, while UKIP will point to a massive increase in vote share and Labour promoting the strong gains in a difficult seat.

Conclusion – This could be a very close election and will go a long way to assessing UKIPs long-term success on the national stage, but it is difficult to look past a relatively easy Tory win, or as easy as can be expected when the former MP was forced to resign in disgrace.

However, we will have to wait until Friday morning to have any idea just how much the political landscape has changed.

First Tremors – How Well Did UKIP Really Do?

Without doubt there has been some kind of political seismic activity. A party with zero MPs, a record of racism accusations and just a single policy winning a national election is undeniably ground-breaking and historic.

Gaining 161 council seats and winning the European Parliament elections outright is nothing to be sniffed at and all three established parties in Westminister will need to urgently address the issues raised by this result.

However, doubts remain about whether or not this was the political earthquake promised by Nigel Farage.

Firstly however, it has to be said the turnout was the thing most would have found disappointing about this election.

Despite all the media attention aimed at the election, thanks largely to UKIP, just 34.19% of people made it to the polls, fewer than in 2009, although only by 0.6%, perhaps proving how little people care about getting out of Europe.

The low turnout is actually an interesting statistic with which to look at UKIPs overall performance.

On polls which only questioned those certain to vote, UKIP was commonly topping the poll on 32-35%, with Labour in second with a vote share in the high 20s.

However, assuming UKIP voters are diehard (and the facts do suggest this) this means the party’s vote share could be as much as 7.5% down on what would have been expected.

In the end UKIPs increase in vote share, of 10.99%, went up only a little more than Labours 9.67%.

You could argue this is down to voter apathy, a disinterest in European elections or disillusionment with politics in general, but it is a key indicator that UKIP did not do as well as maybe they would have hoped, or needed.

With a guaranteed higher turnout for the General Election, it could be argued the many people who would not consider voting UKIP, due to misplaced or accurate views of the party, will play a much larger role which could scupper UKIPs Westminster chances.

It is also worth noting that, despite an undoubtedly good campaign, UKIP only picked up 15.5% of the national vote in council elections, nearly half of its European Election vote share.

Another problem raised is how badly UKIP played in metropolitan areas and in particular London.

Across the country UKIP got 27.5% of the vote, but in London it was just 16.9%, about 40% lower.

UKIPs increase in vote share nationwide falls by a similar amount in the capital to barely over 6%.

While some would claim London is in its own bubble (they might have a point), UKIPs inability to make a breakthrough in the city should certainly be a cause for concern for Nigel Farage et al as it is hard to see them continuing their current momentum without carrying the big metropolitan areas.

There are key differences between the capital and the rest of the country, but as a Londoner myself I am proud my city bucked the nationwide trend.

It is not so much that London is in its own bubble, it is just the cosmopolitan atmosphere means the city is, in terms of social attitudes, ahead of the UK, a fact repeated in all major cities and towns.

Perhaps UKIP spokeswomen Suzanne Evans had a point when she said the party had difficulty appealing to the ‘educated, cultured and young’.

It is also interesting to note UKIP tended to do well in areas with high numbers of white British voters.

In Essex, one of the party’s breakthrough areas, the wards where they did well were made up of 80% from this demographic.

Conversely in London, with a high immigrant population and a place where the supposed effect of the EUs policy in this area should be acute, did not increase UKIPs number of MEPs and saw Labour make some big gains on councils.

Scotland similarly rejected UKIP, who got just 10.4%of the vote, although this was enough to elect UKIPs first European representative north of the boarder, but was a major drop on its overall vote haul.

This could be attributed to an independent Scotland’s desire to join the EU, but the lowlands and cities have seen a booming immigrant population and should perhaps be very representative of UKIPs vision of the EU at work.

Another problem facing UKIP is only just over half of those who voted for them in May 2014 will currently do the same in May 2015, with the majority heading back to the Conservatives, but seeing Labour and the Lib Dems regaining a much higher percentage of their deserters.

At a nationwide level it is pretty clear (and hardly surprising) they hurt the Tories more than the other parties.

UKIPs problem here is expanding their policy base.

It is easy for them to be different on Europe, but they will find it harder to differentiate themselves on taxation, health, education and all the other important national issues, particularly from the Conservatives.

Any talk of privatisation of the health service or flat rate taxation will lose them most of its Labour and Lib Dem defectors, while its Conservative supporters would have to vote blue to get the EU referendum, which UKIP certainly cannot offer.

You can also guarantee the other parties will be adjusting their ground game to combat this new threat and this tactic will certainly include exposing low attendance and dubious voting records of UKIP MEPs.

Sustained UKIP momentum is also required on a local level, with it taking many elections to take control of councils and this year’s good result plausibly based on it coinciding with the European Elections.

The fact is we will get a better understanding of UKIPs long terms success in just over a week’s time with the Newark by-election.

Given how this election came about and UKIPs surge they would expect to do well, although winning might be beyond their grip.

However, if they do not win they need a strong showing or a big surge in its vote share to prove they are now not just a European party, but a national one as well.

It will be fascinating to see the first polls come out.