First Tremors – How Well Did UKIP Really Do?

Without doubt there has been some kind of political seismic activity. A party with zero MPs, a record of racism accusations and just a single policy winning a national election is undeniably ground-breaking and historic.

Gaining 161 council seats and winning the European Parliament elections outright is nothing to be sniffed at and all three established parties in Westminister will need to urgently address the issues raised by this result.

However, doubts remain about whether or not this was the political earthquake promised by Nigel Farage.

Firstly however, it has to be said the turnout was the thing most would have found disappointing about this election.

Despite all the media attention aimed at the election, thanks largely to UKIP, just 34.19% of people made it to the polls, fewer than in 2009, although only by 0.6%, perhaps proving how little people care about getting out of Europe.

The low turnout is actually an interesting statistic with which to look at UKIPs overall performance.

On polls which only questioned those certain to vote, UKIP was commonly topping the poll on 32-35%, with Labour in second with a vote share in the high 20s.

However, assuming UKIP voters are diehard (and the facts do suggest this) this means the party’s vote share could be as much as 7.5% down on what would have been expected.

In the end UKIPs increase in vote share, of 10.99%, went up only a little more than Labours 9.67%.

You could argue this is down to voter apathy, a disinterest in European elections or disillusionment with politics in general, but it is a key indicator that UKIP did not do as well as maybe they would have hoped, or needed.

With a guaranteed higher turnout for the General Election, it could be argued the many people who would not consider voting UKIP, due to misplaced or accurate views of the party, will play a much larger role which could scupper UKIPs Westminster chances.

It is also worth noting that, despite an undoubtedly good campaign, UKIP only picked up 15.5% of the national vote in council elections, nearly half of its European Election vote share.

Another problem raised is how badly UKIP played in metropolitan areas and in particular London.

Across the country UKIP got 27.5% of the vote, but in London it was just 16.9%, about 40% lower.

UKIPs increase in vote share nationwide falls by a similar amount in the capital to barely over 6%.

While some would claim London is in its own bubble (they might have a point), UKIPs inability to make a breakthrough in the city should certainly be a cause for concern for Nigel Farage et al as it is hard to see them continuing their current momentum without carrying the big metropolitan areas.

There are key differences between the capital and the rest of the country, but as a Londoner myself I am proud my city bucked the nationwide trend.

It is not so much that London is in its own bubble, it is just the cosmopolitan atmosphere means the city is, in terms of social attitudes, ahead of the UK, a fact repeated in all major cities and towns.

Perhaps UKIP spokeswomen Suzanne Evans had a point when she said the party had difficulty appealing to the ‘educated, cultured and young’.

It is also interesting to note UKIP tended to do well in areas with high numbers of white British voters.

In Essex, one of the party’s breakthrough areas, the wards where they did well were made up of 80% from this demographic.

Conversely in London, with a high immigrant population and a place where the supposed effect of the EUs policy in this area should be acute, did not increase UKIPs number of MEPs and saw Labour make some big gains on councils.

Scotland similarly rejected UKIP, who got just 10.4%of the vote, although this was enough to elect UKIPs first European representative north of the boarder, but was a major drop on its overall vote haul.

This could be attributed to an independent Scotland’s desire to join the EU, but the lowlands and cities have seen a booming immigrant population and should perhaps be very representative of UKIPs vision of the EU at work.

Another problem facing UKIP is only just over half of those who voted for them in May 2014 will currently do the same in May 2015, with the majority heading back to the Conservatives, but seeing Labour and the Lib Dems regaining a much higher percentage of their deserters.

At a nationwide level it is pretty clear (and hardly surprising) they hurt the Tories more than the other parties.

UKIPs problem here is expanding their policy base.

It is easy for them to be different on Europe, but they will find it harder to differentiate themselves on taxation, health, education and all the other important national issues, particularly from the Conservatives.

Any talk of privatisation of the health service or flat rate taxation will lose them most of its Labour and Lib Dem defectors, while its Conservative supporters would have to vote blue to get the EU referendum, which UKIP certainly cannot offer.

You can also guarantee the other parties will be adjusting their ground game to combat this new threat and this tactic will certainly include exposing low attendance and dubious voting records of UKIP MEPs.

Sustained UKIP momentum is also required on a local level, with it taking many elections to take control of councils and this year’s good result plausibly based on it coinciding with the European Elections.

The fact is we will get a better understanding of UKIPs long terms success in just over a week’s time with the Newark by-election.

Given how this election came about and UKIPs surge they would expect to do well, although winning might be beyond their grip.

However, if they do not win they need a strong showing or a big surge in its vote share to prove they are now not just a European party, but a national one as well.

It will be fascinating to see the first polls come out.