Following UKIPs historic victory in the European elections
all of the noise was surrounding the so called political earthquake, but before
the results were even in those who understand how the British electoral system
works had already turned our attention somewhere else.
Our focus instantly switched to a small town North East of
Nottingham on the River Trent, to the constituency of Newark.
While the purples success in the race to Brussels was
expected, getting seats in Westminster has proved problematic for them, not
least because of the first-past-the-post system (don’t blame me I voted for AV).
However, with their current undeniable momentum Newark
offers an interesting opportunity for them and the polls suggest they could do
well, but with the circus now firmly focuses on the midlands this is going to
be no ordinary by-election.
Under normal circumstance this would be a forgone conclusion
with a massive Conservative majority, but following the resignation of Patrick
Mercer in a lobbying scandal there is potential for an upset.
The first poll out of Newark by Survation suggests the
Tory’s are winning with 36%, UKIP second on 28%, just ahead of Labour on 27%.
With a week to go, a lot of media attention and the election
machines in full swing this is not set in stone and the outcome is far from
guaranteed
But regardless of who wins the result is going to be
interesting, so what will end up happening?
Con Hold – By far
the most likely outcome, but by how much they win will be a telling factor.
It is unlikely they will extend or even get a similar
majority, but this was to be expected following the nature of the former MPs
resignation.
However, a strong performance with an eight point margin (as
the current polls suggest) would be a great result even if a lot of ground
would have been lost, while a four point win would be more than acceptable.
This would allow the Conservatives the chance to claim UKIP
are not a national force and the government’s economic policies are benefiting
the British people, but all this assumes it stays roughly the same.
Con Hold, but only
just – With UKIP and Labour snapping at the Conservatives heals the result
could be a lot tighter than currently predicted.
If the Tory’s win by just a couple of points then the
pressure to address the UKIP issue and the fact they are hurting the blues more
than the reds will only mount on David Cameron.
However, the person under the most pressure might be Nigel
Farage as it could be argued his personality could possibly have tipped UKIP
over the top and gained them their first Westminster representative.
UKIP Win – Given
the conservative leanings of the constituency this is probably the second most
likely outcome after a Tory win and would signal the earthquake promised by Mr
Farage.
It is going to take a big swing and it is unlikely UKIP
candidate Roger Helmer will be able to bridge the gap given his age and
previously expressed opinions on certain issues, most recently the weekends
newspaper story about his views on the disproved theory of gay conversion
therapy.
Similarly, the Conservatives have more backing and greater
experience in running these campaigns so it would be difficult for UKIP to
overturn the lead.
This said the Tory’s are down 18% on 2010 and most of this
seems to be going to UKIP so in fact all that is required is a four point swing
to the purples and we could have a UKIP MP.
Labour Win – Very
unlikely, but with UKIP splitting the Tory vote then it is possible. This would
be a massive win for Ed Miliband and the red team, who last won Newark in the
1997 landslide.
Overall second place, or a close third would be a relatively
successful day for the red corner. The problems only really start with a
distant third or a significant Labour voter swing to UKIP.
However, a win is not impossible, just unlikely.
Everybody Wins –
Sounds ridiculous, but arguably the most likely scenario would see everybody
happy and claiming a victory, or at least a moral one.
Tory’s hold the seat by a few points with UKIP a Labour on
similar scores allows everybody to save face as Conservatives can claim the
actual win, while UKIP will point to a massive increase in vote share and
Labour promoting the strong gains in a difficult seat.
Conclusion – This
could be a very close election and will go a long way to assessing UKIPs
long-term success on the national stage, but it is difficult to look past a
relatively easy Tory win, or as easy as can be expected when the former MP was
forced to resign in disgrace.
However, we will have to wait until Friday morning to have
any idea just how much the political landscape has changed.
