As 2013 [literally] blows into 2014 many choose to look back
over the last 12 months, there has even been a program dedicated to reviewing
the years weather, an exercise almost as pointless as telling us what the
weather was like earlier in the day.
However, here at The Inquisitive Panda we like to look
forward, so instead have decided to give you five things to look out for in the
next 12 months.
Energy
The last few months of 2013 has been dominated by a variety
of energy related topics, from price rises to Labour’s price freeze promise,
and this will continue well into the New Year with many issues continuing to
dominate the landscape, both socially and politically.
The cost of living will almost certainly remain a centre of contention
between the coalition and the opposition, regardless of how well the official
GDP, employment and inflation figures suggest, mainly because Ed Miliband knows
keeping this issue front and centre is vital to his potential success in the
next general election.
Regulation will also be a battleground with a new chief
executive, Dermot Nolan, taking over at Ofgem.
Between the incessant hatred of
the consumer towards the energy companies, fuel poverty and the potential power
shortage he certainly has his work cut-out and will undoubtedly never be far
from the headlines.
Energy generation is set to be a major issue in 2014,
particularly when it comes to fracking. There have been several high-profile
disputes and protests over this controversial energy source this year, including
one involving the arrest of Green Party MP Caroline Lucas.
While there are certainly some significant benefits to
fracking, there remain some serious problems, several of which relate to the
industry regulator. If fracking really is to become a major energy source in
the UK 2014 might have to be the year it starts to take off.
Bulgaria and Romania
With the immigration restrictions being lifted on 1 January,
those leaving two of the EUs newest member states looking for work in the UK
were never going to be far from the news. In fact both the Eurosceptic and
Europhile elements in British politics have both been keen to keep the issue
newsworthy, albeit in different ways, to further their own cause.
Yet, unlike other years when the immigration issue would
rumble along as it usually does, with no tangible effect, the EU elections will
ensure it remains a key issue in the run-up to polling-day in May.
The European elections also offer the opportunity to mention
what could be a key political story this year, the rise of UKIP. Despite
serious gains over the last 12 months, Nigel Farages party continues to be seen
by most as a protest vote, with no real influence, an image not helped by
Godfrey Bloom’s repeated blunders during 2013.
However, with the EU soap-box available for the first few months
of the year, UKIP, and most importantly Mr Farage, have the opportunity to
vault the main political parties and gain support in local elections,
potentially making them a serious force in 2015, a party who could actually
gain seats, rather than one simply there to harm to Conservative’s share of the
vote.
There is one other issue likely to come out of the EU
elections, and that is the debate over voter turnout. European parliament elections
have traditionally never seen high numbers at polling stations and, regardless
of them being arranged for the same day as local government elections, it is
unlikely they will be any better this year.
Manufacturing, Retail
and Exports
As 2013 progressed the economic news started to improve,
although the UK, the Eurozone and America are far from in good health. As much
as the economic revival is expected to continue, there are three statistics
which will continue to have increased significance in 2014.
Industrial output, how much the UK is producing, retail
sales, how much is being spent on the high street, and export figures, how much
is being sent overseas, are the most important of these, for very different,
but equally important reasons.
Both manufacturing and retail statistics have been volatile and
need to stabilise and grow over the next 12 months. Improving industrial output
proves companies are confident enough in the business conditions, while
increasing retails sales would demonstrate the welcome return of consumer
confidence.
From a political, rather than economic perspective, export
figures will also be worth watching as if these start to increase then the
Conservatives central policy, of exporting further afield than just the EU,
will demonstrate the growing influence of UK plc across the world.
Syria
Rarely out of the newspapers this year, Syria is likely to
remain high on the news agenda, for several reasons.
First is the decommissioning of chemical weapons under the
Russian led deal put together earlier in the year. If this goes to plan then
the west will be able to claim some kind of progress, if there are hold-ups or
if something else should go wrong then the whole debate about military
intervention will raise its head again.
The level of human suffering, as terrible as it is, will be
counted in far more than dead and displaced as the refugee crisis forces the bordering
countries to actively take sides in a highly charged conflict which shows
little chance of abating.
The influence of Syria’s Arab neighbours cannot be
underestimated in terms of the global war on Islamic extremism, with Iraq,
Lebanon and Turkey, all with their own sectarian problems, being inadvertently caught
up the war’s aftermath, not to mention Iran, Israel, Palestine, Hezbollah,
Hamas and almost countless more interested parties.
In terms of the war on terror, Africa is likely to become
the main focus for Islamic extremism in the next year, with the continued rise
of Al Shabab and violence in South Sudan and the Central African Republic.
2015
Let’s face facts, the big story of 2014 will be what will
happen in 2015 and from the UKs perspective the big story this year will be the
political positioning ahead of the following years general election, but this
will take very different paths.
David Cameron and the Conservative party will try, in all likelihood
unsuccessfully, to have a quiet year and rely on improving economic figures to
boost their polls, while Ed Miliband and Labour need to make some noise and,
more importantly, headway on important issues.
Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats are unlikely to have a successful
year. While in government is difficult for them to effectively oppose spending
cuts and will then face an uphill battle trying to persuade anyone to vote for
them come May 2015. It will certainly be interesting to see what, if anything
the Deputy Prime Minister does to improve his chances over the next year.
Most important on the political spectrum this year will be
Nigel Farage and UKIP who, following the EU elections, will look to position
themselves as effective alternatives to both Labour and Conservatives at the
general election. However, the question remains as to whether or not the party
can come up with more than one electable member in a national election.
What Didn’t Make the
Cut and Why
Scottish Independence
referendum: Many might be surprised this has not made the cut in a 2014
preview, but there is one good reason for this, we already know what the result
will be. It would take a monumental swing to the pro-independence movement for
the result to change so we are not even going to bother thinking about it.
World Cup: Face
it, England will be lucky if they reach the quarter finals, and if they do they
will lose on penalties.
America: Joy of
joys, Presidential Primaries will start in early 2016. After the display both
parties have put up in 2013, it will be nothing but painful to see what
second-rate carpetbaggers toss their hats into the ring to replace President
Obama.
