Games of Two Halves – Premiership Season So Far

With 19 games played and 19 to go it seems an appropriate time to take stock and take a look back over the first half of the season, before the January transfer window takes over all the sporting headlines for a month.

So who has done good, who couldn’t hit a cows arse with a banjo and which teams will end up making up the important top-four and bottom-three places?

Arsenal

There are few superlatives yet to be used to describe the season an Ozil and Ramsey inspired Gunners are having. After an opening day shocker against Aston Villa (how long ago that seems now), Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal have been pretty dominant and sit atop the Premiership table as we head towards 2014.

Worries remain about the squad quality and depth, especially if the aforementioned German and Welshman pick-up injuries or hit a run of bad form, however, it is fair to say the red side of North London have as good a chance as they have had in years to secure a trophy.

Mid-Term Report:  A+        

Starting to show the quality to back-up the hype

January: If they are to make a serious push for the league title and Champions League, Mr Wenger may be forced to pull out his chequebook out again in January. A quality striker is certainly required, but adding any depth to the squad would certainly be welcome, but will Bendtner finally leave?

Manchester City

As one of the pre-season title favourites, it is surprising it has taken until Christmas for the blue side of Manchester to show themselves as title contenders. However, the undoubted strength and standard of the squad is starting to show itself.

At home they have been scoring for fun, netting six against both North London teams and seven against Norwich. Despite all this doubts do remain, particularly with regard to the team’s away form, which has been sporadic to say the least (remember the game against Cardiff?), although this has improved greatly during December.

Mid-Term Report: A -         

Improving all the time

January: You expect Man City to buy in January, but the question is where. They are well catered across the field, but it will be interesting to see if Manuel Pellegrini decides to bring in a quality goalkeeper to replace the resurgent Joe Hart. The transfer window may be a question of who heads for the exit.

Chelsea

The return of ‘The Special One’ has not been as special as his last stint, but two points off first-place certainly keeps them in the running. However, all is not well at Stamford Bridge. Like many teams this season, a lack of form has been the most troubling aspect for the Blues, although the absence of a striker is certainly a major cause of this.

Fernando Torres is still miss-firing, apart from a high-octane 20 minutes at the start of the second half away at Tottenham which saw him shown an eventual red card. New (albeit old) signing, Samuel Eto’o, is yet to hit any form, while the senior members of the squad, in particular Frank Lampard, are bringing to show the strain. Meanwhile Juan Mata (much to the confusion of everyone else) is still struggling to get in the team.

Mid-Term Report: B-          

Has so far lacked the killer edge, but somehow has been able to keep up with the leaders

January: A striker, a striker, my kingdom for a 20-goal-a-season striker.

Everton

While his predecessor in the hot-seat at the Toffees has struggled with the demands of his new job, Roberto Martinez has taken to it like the proverbial duck to water. Despite the loss of Marouane Fellanini, Everton have been in great form, proving themselves to be one of the toughest teams to beat in the league.

Even an injured Layton Baines, who may yet follow his former boss to Manchester, has failed to stifle their efforts.

While many would still question the Merseysiders chances of a top-four finish, a Europa League place is certainly more than a possibility, but arguably the two most important questions this season, is there a future after Moyes and the quality of Martinez, have both been answered.

Mid-Term Report: A         

Pre-season doubts confounded and proved baseless

January: The future of Baines will probably be the most important aspect of the transfer window at Everton, as will the future of Chelsea loanee Romelu Lukaku.

Liverpool

Liverpool were on top of the table at Christmas and you would certainly have got good odds on that at the start of the season, but back-to-back defeats against title rivals Manchester City and Chelsea have seen the Reds drop down to fifth. However, it would be unfair to judge the ‘pools season on the last two games alone.

Few, if any, were tipping them for success in August and now Champions League football is a real possibility next season. Louis Suarez has confounded his vocal pre-season critics to arguably become the best player in the league, while Daniel Sturridge, before he picked-up an injury, was getting on the score sheet regularly.

A title push is not out of the question and might be worth a flutter, but would certainly be a tall order, while the pre-season objective of re-entering the top-four is certainly on the cards, particularly without the demands of European football.

Mid-Term Report: A       

Would be unfair to say they are over-performing, but are taking their rightful place back at the top table

January: If Brenden Rodgers continues to leave out Daniel Agger then a good central defender is certainly going to be needed, with Liverpool leaking too many easy goals at the back.

Manchester United

There were always questions over whether or not last season’s champions could challenge again without the guiding hand of Sir Alex. After a questionable start the Red Devil’s form has improved, although even recent wins over Hull and Norwich have raised questions.

All that said, they are only eight points behind Arsenal and, more importantly, just three behind current fourth-place team Everton. It was always known it might take some time for David Moyes to find his feet and get a weak United squad to play in a Ferguson inspired manner, but being in Europe’s top club competition next season would certainly be seen as a successful first campaign.

Mid-Term Report: B         

Much improved after slow start to a long-term project

January:  For several seasons it has been suggested United were over performing with a very weak squad. Fellanini’s arrival has not been inspirational, while Robin van Persie’s injury has been very inconvenient. Any quality additions to the squad would be welcome.

Tottenham Hotspur

The summer’s big-spenders, although the sale of Gareth Bale balanced the books, have not had the season they were hoping for. New strikers have failed to replace the goals the left-footed Welshman scored last season and Roberto Soldado in particular seems to struggle from anywhere other than the penalty spot.

All this, plus a thumping by Liverpool, resulted in Andre Villas Boas being the highest placed manager this season to be shown the door, although he was swiftly replaced by former Spurs-man Tim Sherwood. At the moment a Europa League place next season would be seen as a success, but for the financial outlay over the summer the team is yet to hit the heights expected.

Mid-Term Report: C         

Underperforming given previous reputation although results have not always been disastrous

January: Given the fact few of their summer signings have hit their stride it is hard to see where Tottenham would be looking. The players are there, it is just a case of getting them turning reputations into results.

Newcastle United

After a first-day dissection by Manchester City it looked like the Magpies would be in for a long season and Alan Pardew would be a manager facing the sack. However, in the way you would want your team to react, Newcastle have started to show the talent of the 2011/12 squad.

Unfortunately, for those in the media, the expected Joe Kinnear bust-up is yet to happen, but the former manager will have to be in top negotiating form in January to bring in some new faces. It is hard to know where Le Toon will end up at the end of the season, but they look more likely than any other team to round off the top-eight.

Mid-Term Report: B         

Like a good French cheese, it stinks at the start, but tastes good in the end

January: Bringing in quality is needed, but getting them may be easier said than done.

Southampton

The south coast team were in third place at one point this season, although as we reach the halfway point their position has normalised itself. However, no matter which way you look at it the Saints have had a great season so far, a statement epitomised by England call-ups for Adam Lallana and Jay Rodriguez.

However, for all the good work the big summer signings of Daniel Osvaldo and Victor Wanyama have not really added much to the team. If Southampton continue to pick-up points form the teams below them, as they have so far this season, then they could be this seasons Swansea.

Mid-Term Report: B+       

Doing well, although the work over the summer looks to have had little improvement

January: Questions remain as to whether or not Southampton can attract the players they need, but the biggest goal of the window will be holding onto the talent they currently have.

Hull City

The highest placed of the newly promoted teams and the only one to still have their original manager still in charge. Although they have not set the division on fire this season, they have done what every promoted team needs to do and quietly and calmly pick-up points.

Most of the team’s headlines have been off the pitch with protests against the sides chairman wanting to rebrand the team Hull City Tigers, but, to the relief of Hull fans, this has not happened yet and has not affected performances on the pitch.

Huddleston and Livermore have proven to be great signings, and ones which Tottenham now may be regretting, but, as always with promotees, questions over staying power are often raised in the second half of the season. All that said, Hull have, without doubt, given themselves a great chance of staying up.

Mid-Term Report: A          

Best of the new kids. Hopefully can keep up the good form

January: Almost certainly no money to spend.

Swansea

The demands of Europa League football have had an effect on the Swans as they have struggled to recreate last season’s early season form, which eventually led them to a League Cup win.

To their credit they are comfortably mid-table, although drawing to many home games, and through the group stages in Europe and set to face Rafa Benitez’s Napoli. Even if this does prove to be the end of the Swans European adventure, this and avoidance of the relegation dog-fight will be successful.

Mid-Term Report: C+          

Performing well given the extracurricular activities.

January: Brought in quite a few players over the summer, but are still lacking that one high-quality addition.

Stoke City

Ever since their opening day match against Liverpool it has been obvious the Pullis days have gone. All that said Mark Hughes has not been an absolute revelation, with the Potter’s twelfth place disguising the fact they are only five points clear of the drop-zone.

Avoiding last terms nail-biting end-of-season finale will have been the goal from the start and it is true they have not shown any sign of falling into it yet, but they are still a little close for comfort.

Mid-Term Report: C+          

Much improved attitude on last year, but is yet to convert itself into long term results.

January: Hughes did not spend over the summer and if this was due to lack of funds then January will not be more fruitful, however, any additions would be welcome.

Aston Villa

This time last year Villa were on an appalling run of form seeing them concede 15 goals in just three games and, although this season has been better, it has still seen pressure heaped on Paul Lambert as the inexperienced players from last season look to improve.

Unfortunately for the Villa Park faithful  results have been hard to come by and while they have so far avoided being dragged into relegation they have been far from convincing, leaving themselves as one of the clubs (from 10^th to 16^th) who would see a couple of wins pull them away from the bottom three.

Mid-Term Report: C-            

Doing better, but not by much

January: Lambert is not one for spending big on one player, but might need to buck this trend. With Benteke not performing a striker is needed, but arguments could be made across the side.

Norwich

It has been a very disappointing and frustrating season for the boys in yellow. While at times the team has showed quality against the big sides, most notably Chelsea at Carrow Road, unfortunately the word most commonly used to describe them is toothless.

Summer signings Leroy Fer, Nathan Redmond and Gary Hooper have all started to show some quality, while record signing Ricky van Wolfswinkle has been plagued by injury and has just a solitary goal to his name.

The most serious problem for the Canaries seems to be an inability to beat teams around them and manager, team and fans will want to see improvements made over the second half of the season.

Mid-Term Report: D             

Good work over the summer has not transferred into better results

January: With all the money spent before the start of the season and the lack of return it is hard to see who they would buy, but some quality defenders would be a start.

West Bromwich

Other than the loss of Lukaku, who returned to parent club Chelsea after a successful season at The Hawthorns last season, it is hard to put your finger on what exactly has gone wrong at West Brom. After years of yo-yoing between the top-flight and second tier the Midlanders seemed to have cemented their place mid-table before a string of bad results left them in their current plight.

The sacking of Steve Clark was harsh, although not unexpected, and no new manager has been appointed. You would back the Baggies to avoid the drop, but it has been disappointing for a team who had improved so much over the last few years.

Mid-Term Report: E         

A lot of room for improvement

January: A replacement for Lukaku is required

Cardiff

Like fellow new boys Hull, most of Cardiff’s headlines have been made off the pitch with renegade chairman Vincent Tan issuing ultimatums and threats before eventually sacking boss Malky Mackay in what will be seen as one of the harshest departures in the often tumultuous history of Premiership management.

Until the nonsense surrounding Mackay, Cardiff was having a good season, including an unexpected win over Man City. However, many now think the red shirted Bluebirds are destined for relegation.

Mid-Term Report: C for the team and an F for Vincent Tan

January: According to the chairman Mackay overspent in the summer so it is unlikely there will be much money floating around.

Crystal Palace

After a dire start under the stewardship of Ian Holloway, Tony Pullis seems to have steadied the ship, but the fact Palace was unprepared for promotion is still showing. Under both managers there were some gutsy performances, but the team have a bad habit of losing 1-0 rather than holding on to pick up a draw.

The second half of the season, like Hull and Cardiff, will be difficult due to a lack of squad depth and the extra demands put on teams by the Premiership timetable and unfortunately Palace will both have to improve their performances and hope other teams around them continue to perform badly to get back-to-back seasons in the top flight.

Mid-Term Report: B    

Been doing better than expected (just) but needs to improve quickly

January: Could be interesting for Palace as the owners openly admit they were not prepared or behind schedule in their dealings following the playoff win. Better players required in all positions.

Fulham

Despite being one of the teams tipped to struggle this year, most will be surprised just how bad the Cottagers have been at times, particularly at home where they have only picked up two wins and one draw so far, compared to three wins on the road where they usually struggle.

Martin Jol was shown the door and was replaced quickly, and unsurprisingly, by Rene Meulensteen who has not really justified the appointment, particularly based on the trashing by Hull, but Clint Dempsey returns on loan in the New Year which should give them some much needed fire power.

Mid-Term Report: E       

New owner has not translated to investment in players or results on pitch

January: With no money invested by Shahid Khan over the summer you would expect some spending in January, but the new chairman has been quiet on the subject

West Ham United

Out of the bottom six teams West Ham is the only one not to have changed managers, although this could quickly change. Sam Allardyce (or Allardychi as he proclaimed himself following his only successful experimentation with a false number 9) is under serious pressure and results need to improve if he is not to be the next manager axed.

A lot of this improvement may come down to the when’s, ifs and how longs of Andy Carrols injury woes. What may hasten Allardyce’s departure is the Hammers securing the rights to the Olympic stadium, a ground that will require top-flight football to fill it.

Mid-Term Rating: E      

Have lost the potential shown last season     

January: A striker is needed if Carroll is out, but with all the money spent on Downing and the aforementioned long-haired gal scorer there might not be any available for the quality required

Sunderland

It has been a very difficult season for the Black Cats, with just one point before the departure of Paulo Di Canio. The replacement for the fiery Italian, the equally divisive Gus Poyet, has been more successful, but being bottom at Christmas usually means the bells are tolling.

However, just two points separate them from 17^th place Crystal Palace so it is not all over yet and if a team was able to pull off a great escape Sunderland have put themselves in the right position to do it.

Mid-Term Rating: D     

Very poor early on, but are getting better

January: A lot of new faces joined over the summer, but were brought in by the previous gaffer. There is very little cash available, but Poyet will want to put his own mark on the team

Top of the Table

Doubts still remain about Arsenal, although the Gunners seem determined to prove pundits wrong, while Manchester City continue to improve and Chelsea deal with a serious striker shortage.

At the start of the season many believed the Mourinho factor alone would bring the Blues another league title, but given how close the top of the table is it is still anybody’s guess.

The top-four looks likely to be made up of Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool, although United and Everton will be determined to prove everyone wrong.

If I had to stick my neck out now I would change my prediction from Chelsea to Manchester City.

Down at the Bottom

Expect Cardiff and Palace to drop into the relegation spots as backroom upheaval (at Cardiff) and lack of quality on the pitch (at Palace) combine with fatigue.

The third spot is harder to call. Sunderland will be favourites for the drop, but have been showing more fight than West Ham or Fulham which counts for a lot in the long run.

West Brom, Norwich, Villa and even Stoke could still be dragged into the mess, but there are three worse teams than this in the league and they would expect to stay up, although the fans and owners will expect improved results from all of them.

Hull would still be an outside bet as the long, arduous season starts to take its toll.

Team of the Season (so far)

Arsenal, Southampton and Everton all make a good case here, but it is also hard to look past Hull who have done a lot better than many were predicting, especially with all the off-pitch distractions.

The second half of the season will be more difficult for them, but have been the best of the promoted teams by a long way.

Underperformers of the Season (so far)

Norwich. Spent big over the summer and were looking to push on and cement their place as a stable mid-table team this season and have just not been performing.

However, like many of the teams around them, a couple of wins would make a huge difference to the season.

Hero of the Season (so far)

Louis Suarez. After all the controversy he has come back as an unstoppable force.

Villain of the Season (so far)

Vincent Tan. People like him should not be allowed to run football teams

Predictions and Premonitions – Looking Forward to 2014

As 2013 [literally] blows into 2014 many choose to look back over the last 12 months, there has even been a program dedicated to reviewing the years weather, an exercise almost as pointless as telling us what the weather was like earlier in the day.

However, here at The Inquisitive Panda we like to look forward, so instead have decided to give you five things to look out for in the next 12 months.

Energy

The last few months of 2013 has been dominated by a variety of energy related topics, from price rises to Labour’s price freeze promise, and this will continue well into the New Year with many issues continuing to dominate the landscape, both socially and politically.

The cost of living will almost certainly remain a centre of contention between the coalition and the opposition, regardless of how well the official GDP, employment and inflation figures suggest, mainly because Ed Miliband knows keeping this issue front and centre is vital to his potential success in the next general election.

Regulation will also be a battleground with a new chief executive, Dermot Nolan, taking over at Ofgem. 

Between the incessant hatred of the consumer towards the energy companies, fuel poverty and the potential power shortage he certainly has his work cut-out and will undoubtedly never be far from the headlines.

Energy generation is set to be a major issue in 2014, particularly when it comes to fracking. There have been several high-profile disputes and protests over this controversial energy source this year, including one involving the arrest of Green Party MP Caroline Lucas.

While there are certainly some significant benefits to fracking, there remain some serious problems, several of which relate to the industry regulator. If fracking really is to become a major energy source in the UK 2014 might have to be the year it starts to take off.

Bulgaria and Romania

With the immigration restrictions being lifted on 1 January, those leaving two of the EUs newest member states looking for work in the UK were never going to be far from the news. In fact both the Eurosceptic and Europhile elements in British politics have both been keen to keep the issue newsworthy, albeit in different ways, to further their own cause.

Yet, unlike other years when the immigration issue would rumble along as it usually does, with no tangible effect, the EU elections will ensure it remains a key issue in the run-up to polling-day in May.

The European elections also offer the opportunity to mention what could be a key political story this year, the rise of UKIP. Despite serious gains over the last 12 months, Nigel Farages party continues to be seen by most as a protest vote, with no real influence, an image not helped by Godfrey Bloom’s repeated blunders during 2013.

However, with the EU soap-box available for the first few months of the year, UKIP, and most importantly Mr Farage, have the opportunity to vault the main political parties and gain support in local elections, potentially making them a serious force in 2015, a party who could actually gain seats, rather than one simply there to harm to Conservative’s share of the vote.

There is one other issue likely to come out of the EU elections, and that is the debate over voter turnout. European parliament elections have traditionally never seen high numbers at polling stations and, regardless of them being arranged for the same day as local government elections, it is unlikely they will be any better this year.

Manufacturing, Retail and Exports

As 2013 progressed the economic news started to improve, although the UK, the Eurozone and America are far from in good health. As much as the economic revival is expected to continue, there are three statistics which will continue to have increased significance in 2014.

Industrial output, how much the UK is producing, retail sales, how much is being spent on the high street, and export figures, how much is being sent overseas, are the most important of these, for very different, but equally important reasons.

Both manufacturing and retail statistics have been volatile and need to stabilise and grow over the next 12 months. Improving industrial output proves companies are confident enough in the business conditions, while increasing retails sales would demonstrate the welcome return of consumer confidence.

From a political, rather than economic perspective, export figures will also be worth watching as if these start to increase then the Conservatives central policy, of exporting further afield than just the EU, will demonstrate the growing influence of UK plc across the world.

Syria

Rarely out of the newspapers this year, Syria is likely to remain high on the news agenda, for several reasons.

First is the decommissioning of chemical weapons under the Russian led deal put together earlier in the year. If this goes to plan then the west will be able to claim some kind of progress, if there are hold-ups or if something else should go wrong then the whole debate about military intervention will raise its head again.

The level of human suffering, as terrible as it is, will be counted in far more than dead and displaced as the refugee crisis forces the bordering countries to actively take sides in a highly charged conflict which shows little chance of abating.

The influence of Syria’s Arab neighbours cannot be underestimated in terms of the global war on Islamic extremism, with Iraq, Lebanon and Turkey, all with their own sectarian problems, being inadvertently caught up the war’s aftermath, not to mention Iran, Israel, Palestine, Hezbollah, Hamas and almost countless more interested parties.

In terms of the war on terror, Africa is likely to become the main focus for Islamic extremism in the next year, with the continued rise of Al Shabab and violence in South Sudan and the Central African Republic.

2015

Let’s face facts, the big story of 2014 will be what will happen in 2015 and from the UKs perspective the big story this year will be the political positioning ahead of the following years general election, but this will take very different paths.

David Cameron and the Conservative party will try, in all likelihood unsuccessfully, to have a quiet year and rely on improving economic figures to boost their polls, while Ed Miliband and Labour need to make some noise and, more importantly, headway on important issues.

Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats are unlikely to have a successful year. While in government is difficult for them to effectively oppose spending cuts and will then face an uphill battle trying to persuade anyone to vote for them come May 2015. It will certainly be interesting to see what, if anything the Deputy Prime Minister does to improve his chances over the next year.

Most important on the political spectrum this year will be Nigel Farage and UKIP who, following the EU elections, will look to position themselves as effective alternatives to both Labour and Conservatives at the general election. However, the question remains as to whether or not the party can come up with more than one electable member in a national election.

What Didn’t Make the Cut and Why

Scottish Independence referendum: Many might be surprised this has not made the cut in a 2014 preview, but there is one good reason for this, we already know what the result will be. It would take a monumental swing to the pro-independence movement for the result to change so we are not even going to bother thinking about it.

World Cup: Face it, England will be lucky if they reach the quarter finals, and if they do they will lose on penalties.

America: Joy of joys, Presidential Primaries will start in early 2016. After the display both parties have put up in 2013, it will be nothing but painful to see what second-rate carpetbaggers toss their hats into the ring to replace President Obama.

The Problem With Professions – Job Market Woes

In recent months the jobs market has been in the news regularly thanks to improving unemployment numbers and criticism of zero-hour contracts.

This is certainly not a coincidence, with a large proportion of the new jobs being created in the private sector being part-time, shift and zero-hour employment.

Then in the Metro this week (Monday November 18) two letters were published from Kelly-Marie Blundell, a prospective Liberal Democrat candidate in 2015, and Karen Mattison MBE, cofounder of Timewise Foundation, a pro-flexible working action group.

Both claimed the creation of part-time work was a good thing and we should be abandoning the idea of the traditional full-time job for flexi-time, telecommuting and working from home.

This raises two very interesting points, firstly about the nature of the new jobs being created in the economy and second about the concept behind flexible working.

Flexible working and flexi-time have been seen as the trump card in modern work environments for at least the last two decades, but as yet has not taken off as quickly is expected.

With people living further from work, commuting greater distances and having to juggle both a professional and home life, the idea of fitting your working day around your children’s school hours, for example, seems like a really good idea.

The basic concept was people would come into the office earlier, reduce break times, telecommute and work remotely from home.

However, this holy grail of 21^st century human resources has not materialised to the extent many thought it would.

Yes, parents are taking advantage of it to drop-off and collect their kids from work and, thanks to modern telecommunications, work remotely from halfway around the globe in extreme cases, but this is far from the norm.

In particular, working from home is unfairly stigmatised in many office-based environments.

There are many reasons for it not taking off in the way many thought it would.

Firstly, despite the wonders of modern communications there is a significant and quantifiable benefit to having a team based in one place, being able to interact and bond face-to-face rather than email-to-email.

Secondly, people like the routine of going into work. Ask anyone (including this blogger) about working from home and they will tell you it is not as relaxing as it sounds as your home becomes your workplace rather than a place of rest.

Thirdly, and lastly in terms of this blog post (although there are many other reasons), the modern workplace has not evolved as rapidly as people think.

It is easy to claim flexible working sets the workers free, but it is not true in the majority of cases.

Most people still have and work to the traditional idea of what a job and career is and this still revolves around the basic principle of 9-to-5.

Undeniably, more people are working from home or are on flexible hours, but these still make up a minority of the work force and while we have been reliably informed for the last two decades this is the way things are moving there is precious few facts to prove it.

The problem is there are very few hours in the day to be flexible with in the first place.

Almost all professions keep what are essentially office hours, or operate to a much fuller capacity during them. This includes the construction industry, retailing, customer services and event he medical and care professions.

If the majority of people are at work between 9am and 5pm then the majority of business needs to be done between those hours.

In fact, even the single parent, a prime candidate for benefiting from flexible working, still works what are essentially normal office hours, minus 90 minutes at the end of the day.

However, here lies a problem. People get mixed up between part-time and flexible working, when in fact the two are totally different.

Flexible working involves working a standard number of hours, while not necessarily keeping the same office times as other staff. Part time simply involves working fewer hours.

Yes, part-time work has its place in the economy, but it always has, and should always, be taken by people who require this kind of employment routine, for example, students or those requiring a few extra hours to top up wages. It is not a full-time employment substitute.

This is the problem with the current jobs market.

A major criticism of the recently improving unemployment figures is the majority of the newly created jobs are not full-time or even flexible working, but standard, part-time work, which is of debatable benefit.

You can create as many part-time as you want, but if people need to work three of them just to make ends meet then you will need to create three times as many part-time jobs as you would full-time jobs.

It is very easy for us all to get caught up in the technology revolution, allowing us to stay in constant, and all too often unnecessary contact, a think everything else has moved forward at the same pace, but it has not.

For example, the underground system in London has hardly changed at all since the first mobile phone was invented, let alone moved with the times in terms of WiFi, smart phones and tablets.

Yes, the world is changing and in some areas this change is happening at a staggering rate, but it is foolish to think everything is moving forward at the same rate.

We do not currently, nor will we for a while, live in a world where a majority of people require some level of flexible working and the people who require part-time work, like students, will always be able to find it.

So for now the most important thing is to encourage job creation in the way it is actually needed, not in the way a human resource manager’s dream thinks it should be, and for the moment this path is still firmly based around the 9-5 rat-race.

Through The Keyhole – Help-to-Buy

Helping to buy or not helping at all?

A landmark scheme from the government has been launched this week, months ahead of schedule, with the aim of helping first-time-buyers get on the property ladder.

Sounds great right? Well it has been met with a decidedly frosty reception by, unsurprisingly, the Labour party opposition and, much more surprisingly, by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), among others.

So what is the scheme, how is it supposed to help and why is it unpopular in some quarters.

Help-to-Buy is an extension of Right-to-Buy, a program introduced during the Thatcher years where council house residents could buy their home at a substantial discount.

This policy is aimed a little higher up the market and offers a three part mortgage deal, a 5% deposit from the buyers, an equity loan from the government of up to 20% and a standard mortgage covering the remaining amount.

The idea behind it is average income earners will no longer have to save up for years to afford a deposit, equating to around a quarter of the value of the house.

On the face of it this is a great idea, in a market currently dominated by the buy-to-let market, so why are some convinced it is flawed?

The first problem is the policy only creates the illusion of making housing cheaper, in fact it arguable makes them more expensive.

A standard mortgage involves a large deposit and paying off the remained over an extended period of time.

Help-to-Buy involves a much smaller mortgage, but paying off a much larger proportion of the property’s value.

It also makes an assumption about a 5% deposit being an affordable target.

Yes, it is easier to save up 5% than 25%, but either way these are still large amounts of money.

A £300,000 home will require a £15,000 deposit, while a £150,000 property will still involve saving £7,500.

Couples on average incomes will be able to afford this much sooner than a £50,000 deposit, for example, but it will still involve making sacrifices.

Lower income earners with children, the group who benefited the most from Right-to-Buy, however, will still really struggle to see this as a logical option.

Unfortunately some even greater issues arise once the deposit is found.

When people find a home they will have to repay 95% of its value, the 75% mortgage plus the 20% equity loan, with the later only interest free for five years.

With conservative estimates on average property values, people will still be looking at over £1,000/month in repayments before interest, just on the mortgage without the equity loan, over a 25-year period (Based on Clydesdale and Yorkshire Banks official figures).

Admittedly, this is not dissimilar from the average rent in London, but similarly house prices are higher in the capital resulting in higher repayment levels.

There is a serious irony about a government fixated with cutting the national debt level, while encouraging people to incur large amounts of long-term debt in the name of the national obsession that is home ownership.

It also needs to be taken into consideration the people applying for these mortgages will probably not be getting preferential rates from their bank. They are after all those who would have struggled to get a mortgage without it.

On top of this buyers will also have to pay over £1,000 in bank and lawyer fees, not to mention also remain able to maintain rent on current property, energy bills and food.

The issues with this can best be summed up by the comments of Martin Lewis, founder of MoneySavingExpert.com.

Lewis said Help-to-Buy mortgages were “still very costly compared to normal mortgage rates.”

He went on to say those considering small deposit mortgages should consider a 10% deposit to get a better repayment package.

If this is starting to sound strikingly similar to the sub-prime mortgage collapse in the USA, where people were given mortgages when they clearly could not afford to pay them off and which was a significant factor in the banking collapse, then you are not alone.

There are also economic issues, which is where the IMFs issues start to come into play.

Supply and demand is a basic premise of economics, with the idea being as demand goes up, price comes down.

However, in housing this idea is flawed as supply is not rising to meet the demand.

Throw into the mix the fact the housing market does not suffer from a lack of demand and the problems become clear.

Static supply meets rising demand in an already overcrowded market place and already inflated house prices rise even further making it harder still for first time buyers to get on  the property ladder.

This scenario is by no means a certainty, but is a very real possibility.

Unfortunately, this demand issue brings with it a much more real problem for the would-be home owner.

Ask anyone under 35 years old who is trying to buy a house on a moderate income and you will hear the same stories.

They had the mortgage in place, found the house, but were then out-bid by a rival buyer. Help-to-Buy does not stop this happening.

Some will claim this is the nature of a free-market economy, every commodity has a different value to all people and those who want it more pay a higher price, but it is of little consolation to those who will either have to take out a larger mortgage or settle for a cheaper home.

Then there is the knock on effects this could result in.

People tied into long term debt to such a large extent are unlikely to consider major renovation works, such as new kitchens, bathrooms, and conservatory’s, redecoration, or even expenses in the service sectors like retail or tourism.

While consumer spending is certainly not the be-all-and-end-all of a recovering economy it is a major factor.

People who spend money have disposable income and thusly feel secure in their jobs and are positive about the future.

In fact the employment rate amongst builders, decorators and other tradesmen is a significant indicator of economic health.

There is a reason the phrase for an economic recovery is called ‘green shoots’, it is because economics works from the ground up, not top down.

Although, as this blog has previously published, there are serious doubts about the long-term validity of the UKs desire for home ownership (New World Order – Pensions, Retirement and Saving 6-9-13), people should not be discouraged from buying a home.

Being a property owner brings with it many benefits, greater retirement income, improved credit rating and long term cost-of-living reductions to name a few.

However, if people are continually stuck in a cycle of long-term debt the clear and present problem of economic growth is forsaken, which has a detrimental effect on everyone.

Despite its many flaws, Right-to-Buy at least made buying cheaper, whereas Help-to-Buy does not and in the long run is probably more expensive.

The problems of rapidly rising house prices, a lack of construction and unrealistic financing systems needs to be addressed, but with so many flaws and potential pitfalls this system seems to tick very few of the boxes.

Help-to-Buy encourages buyers, but in the wrong way.

About Face: Is Ed Miliband Serious?

During the Tony Blair years if the organised left were as excited about a conference speech as they were about Ed Miliband’s this week it would have normally spelled trouble.

It was certainly a day for the liberals, and yes even socialists, to celebrate with the return of “Red” Ed.

New policies included a rise in corporation tax to offset lower rates on small businesses, a threat to reclaim land which developers did not build on and, most controversially, a promise to freeze energy prices for two years.

This last policy, unsurprisingly, was met with a veritable tidal wave of criticism from the Tory party and the big-six energy companies, although the Liberal Democrats were suspiciously quiet on the subject.

Few would deny there are numerous problems with energy production and supply in this country.

Price spikes and volatile supply from fossil fuels, ineffective renewable alternatives, unpopular fracking and nuclear power, green taxes, carbon reduction targets and substantial price hikes forced onto consumers at a time of stagnant wages are just a few of these issues.

Nevertheless, direct price controls are, to put it mildly, controversial. There are few examples of them working and when they do it is normally with nationalised, not private, energy companies.

The concept is incompatible with a free-market economics and will incense energy firms who might decide not to invest at all in the UK and, assuming Labour got into power, challenge the policy through the courts.

This, in theory, could lead to energy blackouts and other energy supply problems, although it is hard to imagine any energy company would get into financial problems over a two year price freeze.

However, could there be the possibility Miliband does not want to implement this policy at all?

Sounds ridiculous, but this could be his plan.

There is massive public support for some measure to reduce the cost of fuel, giving Miliband and the Labour party a big stick to hit with.

Imagine this scenario.

The energy companies, worried about appearing as if they are gouging the life out of hard working people with substantial price rises, offer a compromised deal, possibly involving a guarantee on lower pricing over a fixed period of time while still offering infrastructure and “green” investment.

Ed moves the goalposts, claims victory and bags a ten-point lead in the polls while David Cameron is left scratching his head wondering why Lynton Crosby didn’t think of the same idea.

The same could be said about reclaiming not being built on by the developers.

The legal ramifications of this policy are staggering and could take years to iron out, but if the developers, again afraid of being on the wrong side of public opinion, offer guarantees on building affordable housing over a set number of years Ed could easily claim another victory.

What this comes down to is policy bait-and-switch, pulling a political white rabbit out of a hat, essentially launching a policy he does not want to introduce, instead hoping to steal the agenda, ride the positive wave of public opinion and get a compromised deal even more beneficial to the public than his original policy.

If this is what Miliband is going for, and this is certainly up for question, it could be a great example of politicking and make the often-criticised Labour leader a major player at the next election.

Of course there is the possibility Miliband is serious about these policies, in which case he faces an uphill battle to convince the middle-class, whose votes he needs to get into government.

However, there are still numerous Blair and Brownite big-business pragmatists on the Labour benches who will not want to see a return to the extreme left of the 1980s, lending credibility to the argument Miliband is not going as hard-left as it might appear.

This strategy, if it is attempted, is risky and leaves Miliband open to attack, but this would not be the first time a political rope-a-dope has been attempted and successful.

But, as with everything in politics, it comes down to maintaining momentum.

After last years “One Nation” speech Miliband and the Labour party disappeared, unable to make ground on any of its key policies.

If this more high-risk strategy is to work for the leader and the party the same drop-off in political energy cannot be allowed to happen.

Maintaining Relevance: Labour, the Unions and Modern Politics

As we enter the early days of conference season attention turned towards Bournemouth as the Trades Union Congress meets to discuss its agenda for the next year. However, members of all unions meet against a rapidly tarnishing backdrop.

In the last few months notable members of the TUC have struggled to stay out of the headlines following the Falkirk by-election debacle, Labours funding switch and the threats of industrial action over pay and conditions.

The major question, from alternative perspectives depending on your political orientation, is how relevant are the trades union in the modern age.

After all we now have health and safety, equal pay, labour and discrimination laws, minimum wage and employment rights. What more can the unions actually achieve in the era of private companies in the public sector?

Labour, whose leader was elected largely thanks to trade union backing, now want to slash its own funding by rejecting trade union donations, while the Conservatives, who have never liked the unions, argue they are out-of-date, out-of-touch and, with regard to strike action, out-of-order.

This is not helped by what is arguably all trades union biggest headache, their poor public image.

When any of the major union leaders go on television they appear like shouty, football hooligan types, who complain about pay and conditions when almost every non-union worker suffers with the same issues.

After all, we no longer live in the age of cotton barons, child labour and worker exploitation and mainstream politics has moved to the centre ground where a balance must be struck between big business and employee rights.

Even the far-right of the Tory party is not going to suggest abolishing the minimum wage.

No matter how suicidal Ed Miliband’s stance on union funding might be for the Labour Party, many on the 

left would agree it is an undue influence, verging on the unacceptable, on the modern geopolitical and socioeconomic landscape.

However, disregarding the unions is in itself short-sighted. After all workers will always require protection and there are examples today of where unions would be better off focusing their attention.

Zero-hours contacts are a prime example of this. This kind of contractual agreement could clearly be used, if it has not already, by companies to exploit workers.

Similarly, at a time of private and public sector cost cutting, it is not a huge leap for this to result in unfair dismissals, worsening work conditions and health and safety violations.

Then there is the decline in living standards across the country as wages fail to keep pace with inflation.

Foreign workers, who may not know what rights they are entitled to in the UK, are also heavily at risk and need a union-based set up to ensure they are not taken advantage of.

These are, for the moment, all just hypothetical, but, in the same way the European Court of Human Rights is there to ensure another fascist dictator cannot start randomly imprisoning dissidents, the trade union movement is needed to guarantee UK workers never have to face industrial revolution style working conditions.

This shows the trades union are far from irrelevant, but suffer from three main issues, a lack of focus, a lack of discipline and a bad public image.

Over the years many unions have split, fractured and even sub-divided to the point where the delegate list at the TUC is an unholy spectacle of acronyms with several unions representing the same interest groups.

Industry specific unions are vital for industry specific issues, for example ensuring teachers have the relevant training, but need to be brought back under a single umbrella union so each sector can pinpoint specific and wider raging areas to deal with.

A major reason for this, and a cause of the trade union movements seeming irrelevance, is because a large number of people, many not associated with, or even lacking access to, a union struggle with the same problems.

With this in mind it is time for the unions to rethink how they operate and stop being the fire and brimstone style agitators they were during the 70s.

As the UK has developed as a country many of the issues unions were formed to fight have been solved, however the movement as a whole still campaigns in the same way as when they were opposing child labour in cotton mills.

What this leads to are regular strike threats which are never taken forward because industrial action is the first weapon taken out of the bag.

Having the right to strike is important, but low voter turnout at the union ballot boxes results in it being more of a legal battle of legitimacy of the action rather than the issues they are fighting for.

If unions restructured themselves along the lines of think tanks, lobbyists or focus groups, with industry specific unions offering greater focus and the TUC offering oversight on all UK workers, they would bestow a level of legitimacy not seen for many decades and be able to achieve some good for the workers of Britain, not just its card carrying members.

To reach this point however the unions need to address the biggest issue. Its PR problem.

Put any of the major union leaders in a debate with a politician and the union leader ends up looking like a foolish, badly behaved child, not because their arguments have no validity, but because they appear like a football terrace hooligan.

Instead of criticising the New Labour years maybe they should take a leaf out of Tony Blair and Alistair 

Campbell’s book and polish up its communication skills so they can become the strong, legitimate force for good they could be in British politics.

In the political world there are some people who are never let in front of a television camera, because they do not come over well on screen, the most damaging problem for the unions at the moment is they have no one who looks good and sounds intelligent on camera.

What this comes down to in the end is not a case of whether or not the trades union are relevant in the modern world, but a case of how can they make themselves relevant to today’s workers as a whole, not just its traditional membership.

New World Order – Pensions, Retirement and Saving

Worried about your nest egg?

The financial crisis has not had the seismic effect many were expecting on the capitalist system, but in its wake is it time for us to rethink how we go about living and saving?

Since 2009 salaries in both the public and private sector have stagnated, while inflation has risen making everything from the weekly grocery shop to housing costs more expensive.

Pension funds took a battering on the stock market, with many now planning for retirement with much less in the bank.

House prices, particularly in London, have continued to rise, and the cost of renting in the capital has become unsustainable for those on lower salaries.

All this has resulted in low consumer spending as people scrimp and save to afford life’s basics.

However, for younger people in particular should this actually be seen as an opportunity to change the way we pay for life and more specifically cope with retirement.

A recent press release by financial advisors deVere suggested people should be saving over £800/ month by the time they are 30 to afford to maintain their lifestyle during old age, while a Barings Asset Management survey suggested people under 35 expect just 40% of their retirement income to come from a traditional pension.

The key issue with both of these statistics is they assume what could be a called a “traditional retirement”, but the kind post-work lifestyle our grandparents, or parents will be able to enjoy will not be available to the current groups of under 30s.

The main reason for this is the current crop of whippersnappers is the first generation who will probably never be able to afford to buy a house. This might seem extreme, but it is true.

Currently statistics suggest people are having to borrow, on average, £200,000 to get on the property ladder and pay about £50,000 up front as a deposit. For the vast majority of people this is unrealistic.

In the past this was less of an issue as people could expect to inherit a property, but with these conditions our children, and even us, might not even have this luxury.

However, panic not, because this could end up being the saving grace for our generation.

House prices are high because developers are not building anything affordable. Instead they build more expensive houses which are then sold as buy-to-let properties, which are rented out at highly inflated prices.

Although there has been outcry over the cost of renting, so far little has been done to tackle the problem, but this is likely to change.

The last 10 or 20 years have proved no amount of well-meant rhetoric is going to get low-cost housing built in this country, because private developers make more profit with selling to the buy-to-let market, which realistically could result in a renters, rather than a buyers, market.

Over the course of your lifetime renting is of course more expensive, however, on a month-to-month basis is not as financially challenging as saving for a deposit or paying of a mortgage.

Renting also ticks the social mobility box. With jobs likely to start migrating from the capital, renting rather than owning offers a level of flexibility the younger generation is keen on in their working lives.

People who own a home are far more socially immobile as they have set roots, whereas renters are able to move much more freely, particularly when it comes to taking a new job, or moving to a different part of the country.

Germany offers an interesting comparison here. In das Vaterland home ownership is not the obsession it is in the UK. For example, in 2011 90% of the residential property in Berlin is rented.

Even in German states where buying is the most popular option, renting still accounts for 40% of the market.

There are many reasons for this, including Germany not experiencing a housing boom like the UK, but rental costs are still 30-45% lower than UK equivalents.

How they have managed this is quite simple. There is so much competition for rented property landlords put prices down, not up.

This model is something the UK, and other countries suffering from similar problems, will have to look at.

Admittedly it would be impossible to recreate the situation in Germany, but a sensible approach to how much rent can be charged (maybe based on Council Tax brackets) could help make housing far more affordable and remove the rather out-dated concept of home ownership.

Pensions are another area where the current crop of under-35s could manufacture for themselves a better future by ignoring traditions.

Every survey and statistic is based on leaving the workforce at the current retirement age, but this assumption corrupts the results.

Hopefully this will come as no surprise to anyone, but anyone under 40 will not get to retire at 65, mainly due to the pressures an aging population is putting on the public finances.

When President Franklin Roosevelt introduced the New Deal in the 1930s people were only expected to live 10 years after retirement. Today, thanks to medical advances, better nutrition and generally healthier lifestyles, people could quite reasonably expect to enjoy 20 or even 25 years after leaving the workforce.

Although no concrete legislation has been passed on this issue, those yet to reach the big three zero can probably expect to be working until their mid-70s and possibly longer.

This results means, unlike our parents, the younger generation will have at least a further 10 or even 15 years to save for a shorter retirement, with the only unknown factor being the increase in life expectancy, which many experts expect to rise at a much slower rate in the coming decades.

In fact we have already started to see this happen, with older people staying in work longer, or taking part-time work during retirement to get themselves through the financial crisis, a factor which is having a detrimental effect on the employment prospects of those just entering the job market.

The idea of having to work later into life might seem depressing, but this is not just a vague theory, it is in fact an economic reality we will all have to learn to live with.

While the raising of the retirement age will come in naturally over time, moving the UK on from the addiction to home ownership and towards a rent-driven housing market is a much tougher proposition and will not be easy to implement.

However, as fewer and fewer people become able to buy a house this too might end up happening naturally.

For the first time in modern history, due to high house prices and the cost of old-age care provision, children can no longer expect to inherit a home, which consequently harms their chances of being able to get on the housing ladder.

This, in time, should result in a competitive rental market where rents are driven down by increased long-term demand, rather than up as landlords try to appeal to more affluent tenants.

Overall, the most important factor in this change may be growing demand for flexible housing as people travel further for work and as a result require more leeway in their housing arrangements.

There are already numerous economic and human resource studies which indicate generation Y in particular will change jobs more frequently and demand increased workplace flexibility.

People should certainly not be discouraged from aspiring to own their house or even taking early retirement if finances allow, but the underlying point here is these economic forecasts are fundamentally flawed because they assume a static retirement age and a maintained level of home ownership, one of which is impossible and the other undesirable.

So next time you start worrying about how you do not earn enough to buy a house or start saving for retirement take a deep breath a remember the basis of society is changing and making assumptions about your life 30 or 40 years in the future based on current conditions is a pointless exercise. 

Hail To The Chef – Jamie Oliver’s Social Policy

By really short via Wikimedia Commons

Anti-Turkey Twizzler celebrity chef Jamie Oliver has come in for criticism this week after he claimed poor families should spend more on healthy meals and less on big-screen televisions.

His comments, published in the Radio Times, led to a massive backlash against the healthy eating campaigner, with critics claiming he was out-of-touch with the reality of poverty stricken families.

The article quotes Oliver as saying "You might remember that scene in Ministry Of Food, with the mum and the kid eating chips and cheese out of Styrofoam containers, and behind them is a massive TV. It just didn’t weigh up."

“I meet people who say, 'You don’t understand what it’s like.’ I just want to hug them and teleport them to the Sicilian street cleaner who has 25 mussels, 10 cherry tomatoes, and a packet of spaghetti for 60 pence, and knocks out the most amazing pasta. You go to Italy or Spain and they eat well on not much money. We’ve missed out on that in Britain, somehow.”

His detractors might have a point about Oliver being out of touch with the problems facing the modern family, especially when you consider how much he charges for what is essentially beans on toast in his restaurant, but does he have an underlying point?

Amazingly, people in lower paying jobs, single parents and the unemployed are able to afford an iPhone, the latest gaming console and a large flat screen TV, but when it comes to meal time are tucking in to unhealthy processed food and ready-meals.

While this is a generalised statement and is by no means stated as an absolute fact there is undoubtedly some truth in this.

The most obvious thing to criticise here is the UKs consumer culture where we are judged, unfairly, on the brand names we wear, the entertainment system we use and what kind of mobile phone is permanently in our hands.

Is it fair children are destined to a life of highly salted, sugared and processed foods (and the health problems these caused) just so they can have the latest gadget?

This is an entirely modern problem, which makes analysis difficult as there is no historical reference point.

If we were to travel back 50-years poor families would spend most of their much lower income on food, which they would prepare and cook themselves, but back then there were no “must have” accessories or microwave meals.

However, it might even be unfair to blame consumer culture for this behaviour.

Ask anyone who enjoys cooking fresh meals and they will tell you making anything from scratch is cheaper than buying the ready-made alternative.

A 400g Tesco Everyday Value lasagne for example costs £0.95p and, to ensure shelf life, is packed with salts, sugars and saturated fat.  Anyone who knows there way around a kitchen would be able to make a far better tasting and much healthier version for at least the same price and probably less.

This dependency on microwave meals is not replicated on the continent and anyone who has travelled to France or Spain will tell you how different the eating culture is and how much more adventurous European children are in trying different foods.

So is the problem simply about people not knowing how to cook, or could it be plain laziness?

Yes, it is certainly easier to blast a plastic packet in the microwave for three minutes than it is to create a homemade bolognaise sauce, but a basic spag bol can easily be made in under half an hour, which is not exactly going to destroy your evening.

Something like chips is a prime example. A bag of frozen chips cost about £1, which is about the same as a bag of unpeeled potatoes.

However, with just five minutes effort, and the same cooking time, your bag of potatoes can make a much larger number of healthier wedges than you can get out of any freezer aisle bag.

In fact there is a certain irony when people are being so careless with the processed foods they are consuming at a time when the public are spending more and more on gym memberships, fitness DVDs and all the paraphernalia associated with them.

Could the underlying point here be that, unlike our European neighbours, the Brits simply do not know how to cook?

The main problem seems to be the two misconceptions where people think buying and eating fresh is more expensive and time consuming.

Both of these notions are ridiculously inaccurate.

In an almost laughable comparison in the aftermath of Oliver’s comments, people criticised him by saying it was impossible to recreate his recipes for less than a ready-meal.

Oliver’s books, like those of his TV cooking rivals, are not full of everyday recipes, but are to be made on a special occasion or, even more importantly, inspire you to cook.

The Naked Chef in fact made his reputation by showing people you did not need the gastronomic flair of a Michelin starred chef to make lovely food at home.

The question remains however, about how do we convince people to leave the ready-meals on the shelf and head to the fresh food aisles?

Oliver, as well as his peers such as Delia Smith, Rick Stein and the Hairy Bikers to name just a few, have for years demonstrated just how easy it is to cook basic meals without breaking the bank, but apparently there are still far too many who have not got the message, probably because they decided to watch the latest mind-numbing exploits from a reality TV show while munching on an extra value meal.

Unfortunately little can be done to physically change people’s attitudes, but it does make you wonder why people instantly went on the defensive about Oliver’s comments.

Eating fresh is, at worst, not much more pricey than ready-made, but if poor families did forsake the gizmos, gadgets and brands they could minimise their debt problems  and provide a better life for themselves with a minimal amount of effort.

In the same way their parents did, people should strive and save to be able to afford nice things, not buy them first and figure out how to pay for them later.

We could certainly learn a lot from our parents and grandparents generations about how we have let our pursuit of material goods get in the way of basic common sense.

The point raised by Oliver here is poor people are spending more on buying wide screen televisions, PlayStations and smartphones, while at the same time buying more expensive and unhealthier ready-made foods.

This concept is actually insane, when, with what would not be a massive cultural shift, we could improve the health of the nation, relieve the plague of debt on poor families and improve their overall living standards.

Overall Oliver’s comments may have been misplaced or even misinterpreted, but, as with all things like this, there is an underlying truth about how we choose to fund specific parts of our lifestyle and ignore what are the more important things, such as ensuring our children get nutritious food.