Barely four months ago Sebastian Vettel took the checkered
flag at Interlagos, to wrap up a sensational second half of the season for the
German, collecting his ninth consecutive win and fourth world title.
However, just 112 days later the drivers and teams are
getting ready to turn their wheels in anger yet again as what promises to be an
intriguing F1 season gets underway in Melbourne.
The same eleven teams will line up on the Australian grid
and there are a few new faces, or familiar ones in different cars, but it is
the rule changes and the disrupted pre-season testing which is gaining the most
column inches in the run-up to the season opener.
So what can we expect from this new campaign and who will
emerge triumphant in Abu Dhabi at the end of November?
The Inquisitive Panda takes a look at what could be the
determining factors.
Reliability
With the massive rule changes and lack of pre-season testing
(particularly for some teams) getting to the end of the race might be the first
big hurdle for many teams.
Even those with miles under their belt in Jerez and Bahrain
will be casting nervous eyes over their computer read-outs during the early
rounds looking for the first hint of technical problems.
However, any team who can get from start to finish and pick
up early points will be in a good position come the alter rounds.
This brings to mind Jenson Button’s championship winning
seasons with Brawn where the British driver won six of the first seven races,
did not stand on the top of the podium again all season, but still collected
the drivers trophy at the end of the season.
Mercedes, or at least the Mercedes powered teams, look to be
in the best shape so if any of their drivers can string together a series of
wins early on, while the others are struggling to complete races, then they
will be in great shape for the rest of the year.
ERS, the replacement system for KERS, will be even more
important this year thanks to the increased power boost the energy recovery
systems will generate this season, so the dreaded “you have no KERS” message
will be pertinent this year.
Development
Although reliability will be the focus of the early rounds,
development will be just as, if not more, important this year than ever before.
F1 has never been a sport to stand still and the winning
team is often the one who provides the best upgrades at the opportune moments
during the season.
This is especially true for the teams expected to struggle
early on, such as Red Bull and Toro Rosso.
The F1 circus returns to Europe early in May, which is where
teams would normally start to make substantial changes to the vehicles, but it
would surprise nobody if alterations were already being made in Malaysia
two-weeks after Melbourne.
Assuming pre-season testing has not lied to everyone, Red
Bull and the other Renault powered cars will need to satisfy themselves with
what they can get early on and focus on bringing in the right upgrades at the
right circuits to pick up larger points hauls later on.
Engines
A major thorn in the side of team principles and race
engineers this year, with the reliability problems, is going to be the use of
engines.
Just five power units are available to each team for the
entire season and this could cause major headaches if teams loose engines early
on.
In the recent, uber-reliable seasons teams could judge how
hard and long an engine could be pushed, calculating when to ditch it to get
the most benefits from a new unit at certain tracks.
However, a couple of blow-outs in the first few rounds and
teams might not have the luxury of brand new engines for the fast tracks at
Silverstone, Spa and Monza.
Smooth Driving
Reliability might be causing the more obvious headaches, but
efficient running is also going to be a major challenge for the drivers and
teams to circumnavigate as the entire motorsport fraternity is pushed towards a
more environmentally friendly outlook.
Tyres are still strictly limited, while the amount of fuel
each car gets has been heavily reduced.
This should benefit smooth drivers who are not as heavy on tyres
or fuel consumption and generally put less pressure on the cars components.
While attack minded drivers, such as Hamilton and Grosjean,
might struggle, their polar opposites, like Button and Hulkenberg, could do very
well.
Qualifying
In a pleasing move, the F1 authorities have decided to
shake-up Qualifying 3 (Q3), otherwise known as the pole position shoot-out.
The top-ten will now start on the tyres used in Q2, not Q3,
and any teams qualifying for, but not competing in, Q3 will have grid position
based on their Q2 time, not race number.
This, along with the new pole position trophy, awarded to
the driver with the most pole starts during a season, should increase activity
during the final qualifying period and stop teams settling for a top-ten start
rather than wasting another set of tyres.
As the season continues qualifying should regain some of its
drama, often lacking last season, but early on teams will probably focus more
on getting a car to the end of the race rather than a good starting position.
Rookies
There are certainly not many new faces on the grid this
season so discussing rookies is a little redundant, but one name did leap out
of the pre-season timing boards, Kevin Magnussen.
The young Finn impressed greatly in the McLaren and it will
be interesting to see how he gets on in the early rounds when the Mercedes
powered cars are expected to do well.
Daniel Ricciardo will also be looking for a big first season
in the Red Bull, but might have to wait a few races before he gets to show what
he is capable of.
Wiser Heads
With the rule changes this is probably a season for the more
mature heads of the F1 grid, whose experience will tell them picking up some
points is more important than crashing going for a win.
With both entering the twilight of their careers, it will be
interesting to see how the Ferrari pairing of Alonso and Raikkonen get on.
Massa, who left the Scuderia for Williams, has been looking
very fast pre-season and a few good results could see the Grove-based get back
to their former glory.
Button, as previously mentioned, is also worth looking out
for as the voice of experience in a seemingly rejuvenated McLaren team.
Backmarkers
Many pundits have been critical of Caterham and Marussia
over the last couple of years claiming both of the new teams have made little
progress.
While this might be true, the major rule changes give both
outfits the chance to pick up some points, cash and sponsorship in the early
rounds.
With reliability such a worry, any team able to complete
race distance could be in with a shot of points.
Kobayashi at Caterham certainly knows the series, but is
also known for outrageous overtaking manoeuvres, which might not be available
to him this year, so it will be interesting to see if the Japanese driver has
matured during his sabbatical.
Midfield
As with may F1 seasons, the really interesting battles take
place not at the front, but for the smaller points places with the likes of
Sauber, Force India, Williams and Toro Rosso looking to cash in on television
time and sponsorship money.
Williams look to have a strong package this year and could
compete a little higher up the grid, although predictions of Massa and Bottas
challenging for race wins might be a little farfetched.
The main question is which, if any, of the front-runners
drop off the pace and start to come into the reaches of the main pack and if
any of the midfielders fall into the clutches of the backmarkers.
If any of these teams are going to cause a stir and punch
above their weight this season they will have to be on form straight from the
get-go in Australia and maximise the early-season confusion as teams get to
grip with new technology.
Front Runners
Mercedes and McLaren both looked strong during pre-season,
while Ferrari and Lotus are both still relatively unknown quantities, with the
Prancing Horses looking a little inconsistent and the tusk-nosed Lotus not
appearing at the first test.
Red Bull on the other hand had a well-publicised nightmare
and will be keen to show this counts for nothing during the early races.
What will be fascinating during the first half of the season
is to see if one driver is able to build up a substantial points cushion, or if
a variety of drivers will be standing on the podium at each race.
Titles
It is difficult to look past Mercedes for the constructors’
championship this season. Pre-season suggests they have the strongest package
straight out of the gate, which should lead to some good early points hauls
and, assuming development goes well, this should see them through to the end.
The drivers’ title is harder to call, with Hamilton
currently the bookies favourite, a claim it is hard to argue with.
However, agreeing with the bookies would be dull and
although Hamilton is certainly in the mix, do not write off his Mercedes
teammate Rosberg.
With Buttons experience and Magnussen’s natural pace it will
certainly be interesting to see how both fare in the early rounds.
Ferrari might not have set the world on fire, for several
season, but with two world champions in the Marranello outfits cars they will
certainly be in the mix.
One final prediction. Write off Vettel at your own risk.
Race of the Year
Every F1 fan looks forward to certain races each year, with
the Monaco, Canadian, British, Belgian and Italian Grand Prix’s normally firm
fan favourites.
However, this season the Australian Grand Prix, purely by
virtue of being first on the calendar, could be very exciting to watch, while
the return of the circuit formally known as the A1 Ring and the new entry from
Russia will be of particular interest.
Surprise of the Year
How competitive Red Bull is even early on. With Adrian Newey
and Christian Horner you have two of the best technical minds in motorsport,
while Vettel has proved over four consecutive seasons how good a driver he
really is.
While they might not be at the front down under, expect them
to up there come the end of the season.
Also expect the ridiculous double points system in Abu Dhabi
not to make a blind bit of difference to who wins the title.
It will also be interesting to see how far into the season
the first legal challenge about a piece of technology is launched. These court
cases have blighted the sport over the last few years, as teams indulge in
competitive one-upmanship so teams cannot benefit from newly developed parts.
Conclusion
With the rule changes and the sheer quality of drivers on
display there is a palpable excitement surrounding the start of the season.
Australia will set the benchmark and before the cars take
the chequered flag on Sunday we can only speculate what the outcomes will be.
