Many, if not all, of us have been surprised by the protests now seemingly sweeping across North Africa and the Middle East with the people calling for freedom of speech and democracy, but how effective will this be and what does it mean for the world?
Surely nothing bad can come out of pro-democracy rallies in countries where the leaders are de facto dictators? Many rulers in these countries have been in power for over 20 years, imprison political opponents and oppress their own people.
Calls for free elections, freedom of speech, association and press are all issues the West has been keen to promote in Islamic nations as part of the war on terror. Democracy is good, personal freedom is good and the people standing up to dictators is good, but what will be the eventual result of these protests?
In Egypt the major complaint has been President Mubarak sacking his cabinet, but refusing to stand down himself. In Tunisia the new government, formed after President Ben Ali fled the country, includes many politicians closely associated with the ousted administration.
It is true democracy takes time. Elections in other parts of the world, such as Iraq and Afghanistan, have taken months to resolve, been subject to voter fraud and have produced questionable results. These problems are something the people of Tunisia and Egypt will be keen to avoid.
These are not war torn countries. For years they have been led by acceptable dictators. Any voting problems will undermine what the protests were about and not bring the changes desired.
This means it may take months, or possibly years, before free and fair elections are held in these countries to ensure they are indeed free and fair.
In the mean time the people will have to remain strong to ensure their ideology is not drowned out by anther de facto dictator simply taking over, but there are major problems in these countries.
Mass unemployment was the catalyst for Tunisia. This is not an issue likely to disappear overnight. A strong government and foreign investment will be required to solve this problem and it would be all too easy for Tunisians to fall back into the usual rotation only to realise down the line they have achieved nothing.
Hypothetical time. The protests are successful across Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt and other parts of the arab world. In the near future political parties are formed and there is a general election is held which is externally moderated and appears to go off without a hitch. Who is likely to win?
This is where we run into a problem. The West was never keen on some of these leaders, but it suited us to ignore the dictatorial tendencies to have them on our side. The new guys may not be on our side and could in fact stand for things we really do not like.
Is it completely out of the realm of possibility these elections result in Islamic extremists taking over in these countries. The hot beds of extremism are in the poorest areas. A new political leader promising a strong Islamic state to the poor and needy may sound like a fantastic idea to the people, but not to others.
We are told to have faith in the people and a belief in what democracy can give us, a future we get to pick. These are important countries in an area everyone is dependent on.
Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria are important trading points from North Africa to Europe, the Americas and Asia for, among other things, oil and natural gas. There is the possibility of this spreading to the Middle East, protests have already been reported in Yemen about the same issues.
Maybe, just maybe, the people will make the right choices and elect a progressive government in these countries to improve the situation in Islamic Africa and the Middle East. The West needs true allies in these areas, not these dog and pony show governments we call allies.
Anybody want to call the odds on which way this will go? Entire peoples are looking for change in countries unfamiliar with what it involves. Will they vote for strong Islamic state, or global partner?
