With 2010 drawing to a close it is very easy to look back and reminisce about what has been an extraordinary year across the world and forget we are still heading into the unknown in many areas of the world in 2011.
Floods in Pakistan, the rescue of the Chilean miners, the Deepwater Horizon explosion, a change of government in the UK and terrorist attacks in Moscow and Sweden have all made front page news.
Elsewhere President Obama has faced a backlash against his healthcare reforms, a major factor in the Democrats poor showing in the mid-term elections. Afghanistan and Iraq both held elections this year, but due to widespread election fraud the results are still unknown.
The result of the presidential election in the Ivory Coast looks set to plunge the country into civil war at a moments notice while there was rioting on the streets of Kingston, Jamaica over the deportation of suspected drug dealer and gun runner Christopher ‘Dudas’ Coke.
This is not to mention the worsening situation between Israel and Palestine, the global economic crisis and the increased tensions between North and South Korea.
So what can we expect in 2011? Of cause many things are unpredictable, but there are many things on the political, economic and business scene which may see large changes in the next year.
The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition in the UK is still looking strong, but cracks are starting to show. The student fees protest and the recent covert recordings showing Lib Dem cabinet members true feelings about Tory colleagues has shown it may not be all plain sailing.
In the New Year the public will face a referendum on the alternative voting system, a key Lib Dem campaign proposal. A failure on this could cause many problems amongst backbenchers uneasy about the coalition. It currently looks unlikely such a proposal will pass, but the result depends greatly on how the Lib Dems are allowed to promote the issue, while any gagging by the Tory’s will defiantly cause problems for the coalition.
Spending cuts will also start in 2011 and could certainly lead to a rise in protests in London and across the UK while police tactics, such as ketteling, will certainly be called into question.
Europe is another issue which could cause problems on the political scene in the UK with many Conservatives being notably Euro-sceptic, while all other sides of the house are on the other side of the issue. Anything major to do with European involvement or spending will undoubtedly cause problems for the UK government.
It is not all bad though. We have Will and Kate’s wedding to look forward to and 2011 means it is only a year until the London Olympics. This means commemorative plates and news stories about how unprepared the venues are.
Across the Atlantic they will be heading into the presidential primary season in January 2012 with Obama still under pressure regarding the US economy and his healthcare reforms. It is not all good for the Republicans though. The tea party movement has split the conservative right in two and front runners for the Republican nomination will face competition from a tea party candidate. Will it be Sarah Palin? In the rest of the world we will be keeping our fingers crossed it is not.
Looking forward to the presidential elections in 2012 it is fair to say Obama is in trouble. However, there is an easy way out. If the economy does start to improve in America he, and his economic policies, will be vindicated making it easier for him to get re-elected. If the US economy does not improve he will be out of a job, and if it has not started to improve by 2012 maybe he should be.
Fallout from 2010 will also figure heavily in the news this year, most notably for BP. After the explosion on Deepwater Horizon all drilling was suspended in the Gulf of Mexico. This situation cannot continue indefinitely and there will certainly be hearings into what exactly went wrong resulting in repercussions for BP and the global oil and gas industry.
How serious these problems are in the long run depend entirely on the findings of any investigation, but BP certainly are going to face a tough year.
The banking industry too will look at 2011 as a year with many potential pitfalls. New banking regulations are going to come into force across the world with many people still complaining about the levels of bonuses still available and the lack of any punishment for the banks regarding there part in the global recession.
These incoming regulations will force banks to rethink locations and operations resulting in some countries potentially losing the lucrative financial sector and the jobs associated with it.
One of the most noticeable elements of the financial crisis has been the companies going bankrupt. From Lehman Brothers to travel agents companies closing down have been a problem. There will certainly be more casualties in the coming year, the only question is where and when.
Wikileaks has shot to fame this year amongst the general public after a series of high profile leaks regarding the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and cables reporting the personal views of the US and other diplomatic figures across the world. This has culminated in founder Julian Assange being arrested regarding sex offences in Sweden.
The sex offences will likely get little press but this does leave potential for him to be extradited to America to face charges over the leaked material. Assange himself could face jail time in the US, but not very much. If he is forced to name his source there could be a very high profile charge made resulting in serious jail time.
Elsewhere in the world there are numerous issues to keep an eye on. Problems following the presidential election in the Ivory Coast are now being reported as being close to genocide. The UN has already declared the winner of the election as challenger Alassane Outtara, but incumbent Laurent Gbagbo has refused to stand down.
This is not a new issue in many African states, but the UN has a poor reputation in the region following issues with peacekeepers, or a lack of, in Sudan and Rwanda. They will be keen for this situation not to escalate and for any UN forces to play a positive role.
Former Soviet countries in Asia are also facing many problems. Earlier this year Kyrgyzstan saw rioting and killing on the streets as the people ousted its now former president. This ended up with thousands of refugees fleeing the country and reports of human rights violations across the country. Although the tensions seem to have died down there are still various problems in this area of the world which will undoubtedly flare up again in the next 12 months.
One issue certain to dominate the news in the coming year is the global economic recovery, or lack of it. In the west, most notably the EU bloc and America, the news will be dominated by rising unemployment, spending cuts and stagnant growth figures, but there is another side to this story which is also likely to make headlines.
Brazil, Russia, India and China, or the BRIC economies, have shown spectacular growth while the established economies have shrunk or stagnated. This is certainly not a passing trend. Over the course of 2011, and the rest of this decade, these countries are set to become amongst the most powerful in the world.
Russia, India and Brazil do have one huge advantage, they are not seen as a threat in the same way China is. However, China is by far the most powerful of these countries and America especially is hoping for a lot of Chinese cooperation on a number of issues such as trade, patent observation and North Korea.
North Korea has had an especially odd year with leader Kim Jong Il naming his successor and later in the year choosing to shell a South Korean island. This sabre rattling on the Korean peninsular is not new, in fact quite the opposite, but as always it has the potential to boil over into direct conflict between the two nations forcing America, Japan and China to take sides.
There is a belief this is unlikely to happen as North Korea has become increasingly marginalised by its closest ally China and is desperate for any legitimacy on the international stage, but the South is not above throwing the first punch forcing the North to retaliate.
South America and Africa to are still dealing with tensions amongst themselves and other nations. The UK and Argentina are still arguing over Falklands oil, an issue unlikely to cause any problems in the short term. In Africa problems in Sudan are likely to come to a head this year following elections this year and a proposed annexing of the south for its oil. This could lead to further loss of life and renewed waves of refugees heading for Darfur.
As with any year there are many potential problems with the potential to dominate the headlines, but it is likely to be the unforeseen ending up being the story. Natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods are still a major risk to countries and, as has been seen in Pakistan this year, can cause untold suffering to million along with massive loss of life.
There is, as always, the hope of a better 2011 for all of us with the problems we currently face fading away. The best wishes to all of you for 2011.
